Oscar 2006 Winner Predictions
Category : Women Gossip
Now we are a week away from this year’s 78th Annual Oscar Academy Awards that will be held on Sunday, March 5, with Jon Stewart of “The Daily Show” as host. Have you vote for your most favourite films? Any predictions yet? Can the cowboys of gay romance Brokeback Mountain, this year’s most-nominated movie with candidates in eight categories lasso best film away from its main rival, race relations drama Crash?
Most of the Oscar nominees represent small, thoughtful, independently financed movies with something on their minds but most moviegoers haven’t seen them.
Hammered by the idiocy of formula television and video games, a generation is forming that has no feeling for narrative and character. The Oscar nominees represent filmmaking at a high level, but who do you know who has gone to see more than two or three of them?
Let’s try to predict the 2006 Oscar winner for some big category here.
BEST PICTURE
Crash†is the most conventional and most easily absorbed of this year’s best picture nominees.
It’s a very entertaining movie about a very serious racism issue with powerful emotion in a multicultural society, racism and more complex than we like to think, and doesn’t sort its victims into the good and the evil but finds everyone can be a little of both. This what Hollywood has ignored for the better part of two decades.
And it’s the cheapest film (made for $6.5 million) of the bunch, showing that you don’t need big bucks when you have a good idea.
How about “Brokeback Mountain”? It has the more purely emotional appeal; it tells the story of two men in love for a lifetime and unable or afraid to act on their feelings. It is a powerfull film and thought to be the Oscar leader, but I sense that its support has faded in recent weeks as voters take another look at “Crash.”
BEST DIRECTOR
Ang Lee, the winner of the Director’s Guild Award goes on to win the directing Oscar. But that didn’t happen in 2000, when Lee got the DGA honor for “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon†but still lost the Academy Award to Steven Soderbergh for “Traffic.â€
Actually, the director who wins DGA honor almost always goes on to win the Oscar, and so that means the best director this year will be Ang Lee, for “Brokeback Mountain.
BEST ACTOR
Philip Seymour Hoffman on Capote has already snagged Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild awards. Researching while he plays the mannered society creature Truman Capote shows him venturing into the alien land of Kansas to write a book about the brutal murder of a farm family. By writing the book for almost one years, involve him deeply in the lives of the convicted killers, Dick Hickok and Perry Smith. Caught in an emotional vise when he loves Perry but wants to kill him for the ending of the book.
His strongest competition comes from his turn as country legend Johnny Cash at Phoenix.Ledger’s performance as a self-hating, sexually conflicted ranch hand is certainly the best work of this young actor’s career, and he’s been rewarded with nominations from just about every group that gives awards.
BEST ACTRESS
Reese Witherspoon for her role as June Carter Cash, she is funny, touching and convincing as June Carter Cash in “Walk the Line” and the category offers few strong contenders. She has a way of burrowing inside her characters to bring out unexpected facets of their personalities. That’s why she’s so much fun to watch.
Felicity Huffman also has chance to win this category with her “Transamerica,” in which she plays a man who hits a speed bump just before he’s scheduled for gender reassignment surgery to become a woman, Huffman played a man who has always thought of himself as a woman but who still pushes too hard to be feminine. But on the day the nominations were announced, “Transamerica” had grossed less than $1 million at the box office, and it is still under $1.5 million.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Matt Dillon could win as the racist cop with a tortured private life, but George Clooney could be the front-runner, because of roll-over sentiment for his supporting role and co-writing credit for “Good Night, and Good Luck,” and his unbilled role as a producer of that movie.
Matt Dillon took a character who could be played as a lout and imbued him with humanity, courage and a truck full of conflicting impulses. If it’s a “Crash” year and will be a major factor in the best picture race, Dillon could take the benefit.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
With the Golden Globe and the Screen Actors Guild awards already on her mantelpiece, Rachel Weisz is so far out in front she needn’t turn around to see who might be gaining on her. She has charmed a lot of voters with her work on behalf of “The Constant Gardener,” in which she is indeed very good.
How about Amy Adams? As the new comer for this year competition, she plays the most effective and in some ways most difficult performance in any category. She plays a pregnant young wife in a tragicomically dysfunctional family, and it’s her love that keeps the other characters from spinning out of control. She gave the kind of scene-dominating performance that makes even jaded moviegoers sit up and take notice, but her movie did not get much buzz in theaters, and undoubtedly most Oscar voters saw it.
And here is our Oscar predictions quick list for other category :
Animated: Wallace & Gromit
Foreign Language: Tsotsi
Art Direction: King Kong
Cinematography: Good Night, and Good Luck
Costume: Pride & Prejudice
Documentary: March of the Penguins
Documentary Short: God Sleeps in Rwanda
Film Editing: Crash
Makeup: The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
Visual Effects: King Kong
Sound Editing & Mixing: The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
Score: Memoirs of a Geisha
Song: “In the Deep,” Crash
Short Animated: One Man Band
Short Live: The Last Farm
Screenplay, Adapted: Brokeback Mountain
Screenplay, Original: Crash
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